Thursday, April 24, 2014

Battle for the Power - Elections 2014

Battle for the power at centre is heating up and most of the political parties are in full throttle to reach the magic number. Coalitions, accusations, denials are in full form and statements have already crossed from limits of political arena to personal arena. Who is going to win that only time will tell but let us have a look what went wrong or what went right for the major parties in this epic battle and predict where they are most likely to finish this epic battle.

Congress led UPA: Race to Survive
From the start a strong anti-incumbency wave is clear against the current ruling Congress led UPA government and people are raising doubts about their performance in last 10 years. Rising prices, corruption, lack of basic amenities and employment opportunities are weighing heavily over there performance. The effect is such that they even failed to announce any likely PM candidate and only projected Mr. Rahul Gandhi as flag bearer of the UPA. Yes I agree that they could have done much better while in Power but it seems like Mr. Rahul Gandhi is not getting support from all quarters in the Congress party itself specially the senior leaders. Nevertheless we should not forget that during UPA tenure the country has survived two waves of recession and global economic slowdown without drowning or hitting the bottom. But yes at the same time they failed to check corruption and rising prices which may result in their worst performance ever in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. According to me Congress led UPA shall win anywhere between 125 to 140 seats.

BJP led NDA: The Front Runner
People may deny it but yes there is Modi wave in many large pockets of the country as many people are heard saying that they had voted for Modi as PM. Coupled with anti-incumbency wave against UPA government BJP led NDA may be able to put forth its best tally ever but I doubt that they will be able to reach the magic number of 272 without any external support. BJP led NDA is expected to do well in UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan whereas South, East and small states like Punjab, Haryana, Chattisgarh, Goa, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Seemandhra may easily push their tally way beyond 200. With change of guard, people are hoping for reforms, business friendly atmosphere and stable economic conditions (more like Gujarat model) and this can be a deciding factor for NDA tally. According to me BJP led NDA shall win anywhere between 240 to 260 seats.

Third Front and Others: The Dreamers and The Opportunists
As such there is no official formation of The Third Front this time but there are strong signals that this may come to fore if regional parties are able to do well in the elections. Why there is no Third Front this time, reason is simple, unlike UPA where nobody wants to be the PM, here everybody wants to be the PM. From Mulayam Singh Yadav to Mayawati, Mamata Banarjee to Jayalalitha, Deve Gowda to Nitish Kumar, so many names have been cropped up for the PM post that they themselves are confused on how to form an official front with consensus. However they may together win anywhere between 120 to 130 seats and some of them may be able to bargain for good portfolios post elections by supporting the formation of the government at the centre.

AAP: The Lost Cause
What started as a good cause is now suddenly turning into a lost cause with each passing day for Aam Aadmi Party. Their claim of winning over 100 seats seems to be quite far-fetched and their chances are thinning ever since they had thrown away their government in Delhi. People are not very impressed with their way of functioning and now there are questions being raised about their integrity as well. Decision of fighting over 500 seats for a new party itself was way beyond their reach and they had already stretched themselves too much which may further harm their prospects and may bring more pain than the glory. According to me they should have contested only on 70 to 80 high profile seats with a healthy winning percentage and next election could have been totally different for them. Still it cannot be ruled out that they may play major spoilers in many key constituencies and will surely give sleepless nights to both UPA and NDA. Two months back I would have predicted 50 seats for AAP but by going with the current trend they may end up with anywhere between 10 to 20 seats only.

What will happen exactly and which way voters will swing their ballot, that only 16th May will tell but Elections 2014 will surely be one of the most keenly contested battles for power which may see many big names biting dust and many newcomers taking the centre stage. Whoever comes to power I feel it should be mandate to only one party as then only they will be truly able to work for the progress of the country and that is what my heart whispers to me...........

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